Decision Library
These are judgment case studies: the context, what was known at the time, the tradeoffs, what people decided, what happened, and what can be learned from it.
NASA had to decide how to abandon the moon mission and improvise a survival plan in real time.
After an oxygen tank exploded in April 1970, Apollo 13 went from a lunar mission to a rescue mission. Mission Control and the astronauts had to choose a sequence of imperfect decisions that maximized survival under extreme uncertainty.
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One of the most dangerous decisions of the Cold War was to avoid both passivity and immediate air strikes.
In October 1962, the United States discovered Soviet nuclear missiles in Cuba. President Kennedy and his advisers had to choose a response under extreme time pressure, incomplete information, and existential stakes.
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A rejected acquisition conversation became a forcing moment about conviction, timing, and the future of distribution.
In 2000, Netflix approached Blockbuster about a deal that would have put Netflix inside the dominant incumbent. Blockbuster declined. Netflix then had to choose whether to stay the course on a difficult model and continue betting against the center of the market.
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Announcing the future too early can destroy the present that still funds it.
Osborne Computer is frequently cited as a warning case in product judgment: previewing a more attractive next product too early can freeze demand for the current product and destabilize the business before the future arrives.
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In 1997 Apple was sprawling, confused, and close to collapse. The turnaround began with ruthless focus.
When Steve Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, the company had too many products, weak strategic clarity, and declining performance. One of the most consequential decisions was not what to add, but what to stop.
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A decision to absorb major short-term loss helped define a standard for crisis response and consumer trust.
After cyanide-laced Tylenol capsules were linked to deaths in the Chicago area, Johnson & Johnson had to decide how far to go in pulling product, warning the public, and protecting trust in the brand.
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